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Politics

Russia's 2026 State Duma election:

0 forecasts 0 points committed

Probability timeline

Point-stake probability across every child poll.

YES probability
Range
LDPR wins?Resolves Sep 2150%New People wins?Resolves Sep 2150%United Russia wins?Resolves Sep 2150%CPRF wins?Resolves Sep 2150%Another party wins?Resolves Sep 2150%
−7d−3.5dNow

Make your call

Choose YES or NO for any open poll.

LDPR wins?Resolves Sep 21
New People wins?Resolves Sep 21
United Russia wins?Resolves Sep 21
CPRF wins?Resolves Sep 21
Another party wins?Resolves Sep 21
Market context

Russia's presidential decree of June 16, 2026 appointed the State Duma election, and the published election calendar places voting on September 20, 2026. Independent reporting identifies United Russia, the Communist Party, LDPR, and New People among the principal parties expected to contest the election.

Resolution rules

Resolve from the certified final result published by Russia's Central Election Commission. The winner is the party awarded the greatest final number of seats in the full 450-seat State Duma, combining party-list and single-member-district seats. Resolve YES for exactly one child and NO for all others. Include official recounts, corrections, court rulings, annulments, and replacement elections that alter the certified seat totals. A coalition or electoral bloc does not count as a party unless the Central Election Commission certifies it as a party entity. If a tie for the greatest number of seats remains after all authoritative corrections and rulings, resolve every child NO. If the election is postponed or annulled without a certified replacement result by the close, resolve every child NO. Timezone: Europe/Moscow.

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