Russia's 2026 State Duma election:
Probability timeline
Point-stake probability across every child poll.
Make your call
Choose YES or NO for any open poll.
Market context
The 2026 State Duma election is scheduled for September 18-20, 2026. This group concerns the party finishing with the greatest certified seat total across the full chamber, not whether individual parties exceed vote-share thresholds.
Resolution rules
Resolve all five children from the final certified allocation of seats for the full State Duma published by Russia's Central Election Commission. A named-party child resolves YES if that party receives the greatest final number of seats in the chamber; all other children resolve NO. Another party wins? includes every party other than United Russia, CPRF, LDPR, and New People. Use the final certified seat totals after recounts and binding court rulings, not projected results or party-list vote share alone. If two or more parties remain tied for the greatest number of seats in the final legally binding result, annul all five children because there is no unique winner. If voting is postponed, extend closure to the replacement election. If the nationwide election is cancelled without a replacement, annul all five children. Corrections and recounts supersede earlier results. The governing timezone is Europe/Moscow.
Discussion
Share the reasoning behind your call.