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Politics

Russia's 2026 State Duma election:

0 forecasts 0 points committed

Probability timeline

Point-stake probability across every child poll.

YES probability
Range
CPRF wins?Resolves Sep 2050%United Russia wins?Resolves Sep 2050%New People wins?Resolves Sep 2050%LDPR wins?Resolves Sep 2050%Another party wins?Resolves Sep 2050%
−7d−3.5dNow

Make your call

Choose YES or NO for any open poll.

CPRF wins?Resolves Sep 20
United Russia wins?Resolves Sep 20
New People wins?Resolves Sep 20
LDPR wins?Resolves Sep 20
Another party wins?Resolves Sep 20
Market context

The 2026 State Duma election is scheduled for September 18-20, 2026. This group concerns the party finishing with the greatest certified seat total across the full chamber, not whether individual parties exceed vote-share thresholds.

Resolution rules

Resolve all five children from the final certified allocation of seats for the full State Duma published by Russia's Central Election Commission. A named-party child resolves YES if that party receives the greatest final number of seats in the chamber; all other children resolve NO. Another party wins? includes every party other than United Russia, CPRF, LDPR, and New People. Use the final certified seat totals after recounts and binding court rulings, not projected results or party-list vote share alone. If two or more parties remain tied for the greatest number of seats in the final legally binding result, annul all five children because there is no unique winner. If voting is postponed, extend closure to the replacement election. If the nationwide election is cancelled without a replacement, annul all five children. Corrections and recounts supersede earlier results. The governing timezone is Europe/Moscow.

Discussion

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