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Econ

Fed rate hike by...?

0 forecasts 0 points committed

Probability timeline

Point-stake probability across every child poll.

YES probability
Range
October Meeting?Resolves Dec 950%September Meeting?Resolves Dec 950%
−7d−3.5dNow

Make your call

Choose YES or NO for any open poll.

October Meeting?Resolves Dec 9
September Meeting?Resolves Dec 9
Market context

Fed rate hike by... is still developing. Federal Reserve Board recently reported “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, July 29, 2026”, while Federal Reserve Board maintains FOMC meeting calendars and information. Those developments frame the current competitive or public backdrop without determining the eventual result.

Resolution rules

Each poll resolves independently against the final official record for Fed rate hike by.... A poll resolves YES only when its exact proposition is confirmed and NO when the final record contradicts it. Federal Reserve Board is the authoritative external resolution source; forecasts, displayed probabilities, and commentary do not settle a poll. If the authoritative release or event is delayed, the affected poll remains unresolved until the result is available, unless that poll's proposition defines a firm deadline; deadline-based polls are evaluated only on whether their condition occurred by that deadline. Formal corrections supersede earlier records. If authoritative sources conflict or remain materially ambiguous, the affected poll remains pending for review. The expected evaluation time is 2026-12-09T00:00:00.000Z UTC.

Discussion

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