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European Commission publishes its MiCA review report by

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Probability timeline

Point-stake probability across every child poll.

YES probability
Range
December 31, 2026?Resolves Dec 3150%
−7d−3.5dNow

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December 31, 2026?Resolves Dec 31
Market context

The European Commission’s targeted MiCA review consultation opened May 20, 2026 and states that responses will help it prepare the report mandated under Articles 140 and 142 of the regulation.

Resolution rules

Resolve YES if the European Commission officially publishes the report on MiCA application and recent crypto-market developments required under Articles 140 and 142 of MiCA on or before December 31, 2026, 23:59 Europe/Brussels time. Resolve NO if the report is not officially published by that cutoff, or if the Commission publishes only consultation materials, a staff working document, or an unrelated legislative proposal without the mandated report. Use the European Commission’s official finance or EUR-Lex publications as authoritative sources. Apply later official corrections to the corrected publication record. If the report is replaced by an officially identified equivalent fulfilling the same statutory reporting purpose, count that publication; otherwise treat ambiguity as NO.

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