Will the European Central Bank raise its deposit facility rate at or before...
Probability timeline
Point-stake probability across every child poll.
Make your call
Choose YES or NO for any open poll.
Market context
Reuters reporting on July 23, 2026 said the ECB kept rates unchanged but left a September hike in play as energy prices increased inflation risks. The polls cover successive official policy-decision cutoffs.
Resolution rules
Resolve each child poll using an official ECB monetary-policy decision published on or before the specified date. YES means the ECB deposit facility rate is higher than immediately before the cutoff as a result of an ECB Governing Council decision. NO means it is unchanged or lower. Use the ECB monetary-policy statement and official key-interest-rates page as authoritative sources; formal corrections supersede earlier statements. If a meeting is postponed or cancelled, use the next official decision before the cutoff. An announced intention, market pricing, or verbal guidance without a rate change does not count. Dates are interpreted at 11:59 p.m. UTC.
Discussion
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