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Econ

Will the European Central Bank raise its deposit facility rate at or before...

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Probability timeline

Point-stake probability across every child poll.

YES probability
Range
November 1, 2026?Resolves Jan 150%January 1, 2027?Resolves Jan 150%September 10, 2026?Resolves Jan 150%December 1, 2026?Resolves Jan 150%October 1, 2026?Resolves Jan 150%
−7d−3.5dNow

Make your call

Choose YES or NO for any open poll.

November 1, 2026?Resolves Jan 1
January 1, 2027?Resolves Jan 1
September 10, 2026?Resolves Jan 1
December 1, 2026?Resolves Jan 1
October 1, 2026?Resolves Jan 1
Market context

Reuters reporting on July 23, 2026 said the ECB kept rates unchanged but left a September hike in play as energy prices increased inflation risks. The polls cover successive official policy-decision cutoffs.

Resolution rules

Resolve each child poll using an official ECB monetary-policy decision published on or before the specified date. YES means the ECB deposit facility rate is higher than immediately before the cutoff as a result of an ECB Governing Council decision. NO means it is unchanged or lower. Use the ECB monetary-policy statement and official key-interest-rates page as authoritative sources; formal corrections supersede earlier statements. If a meeting is postponed or cancelled, use the next official decision before the cutoff. An announced intention, market pricing, or verbal guidance without a rate change does not count. Dates are interpreted at 11:59 p.m. UTC.

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