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Politics

Berlin House of Representatives election 2026:

0 forecasts 0 points committed

Probability timeline

Point-stake probability across every child poll.

YES probability
Range
SPD wins?Resolves Sep 2150%AfD wins?Resolves Sep 2150%Another party wins?Resolves Sep 2150%CDU wins?Resolves Sep 2150%Greens win?Resolves Sep 2150%
−7d−3.5dNow

Make your call

Choose YES or NO for any open poll.

SPD wins?Resolves Sep 21
AfD wins?Resolves Sep 21
Another party wins?Resolves Sep 21
CDU wins?Resolves Sep 21
Greens win?Resolves Sep 21
Market context

Berlin's House of Representatives election is scheduled for September 20, 2026. Berlin reported on July 16, 2026 that 21 parties had submitted candidate lists, confirming a competitive legislative election with multiple possible seat leaders.

Resolution rules

Resolve from the certified final result published by Berlin's competent election authority. The winning party is the party awarded the greatest final number of seats in the entire House of Representatives, not the party with the highest vote share. Resolve YES for exactly one child and NO for all others. Include valid recounts, corrections, court-ordered changes, and any legally required repeat election before certification. If parties form a pre-election or post-election coalition, count seats by the party listed on the certified result; do not treat coalition totals as a party result. If a tie for the greatest number of seats remains after all authoritative corrections and rulings, resolve every child NO. If the election is postponed or annulled without a certified replacement result by the close, resolve every child NO. Timezone: Europe/Berlin.

Discussion

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