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Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

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Probability timeline

Point-stake probability across every child poll.

YES probability
Range
Michael Morales?Resolves Dec 3150%Joaquin Buckley?Resolves Dec 3150%Jack Della Maddalena?Resolves Dec 3150%Other?Resolves Dec 3150%Kamaru Usman?Resolves Dec 3150%Other5 other polls50%
−7d−3.5dNow

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Choose YES or NO for any open poll.

Michael Morales?Resolves Dec 31
Joaquin Buckley?Resolves Dec 31
Jack Della Maddalena?Resolves Dec 31
Other?Resolves Dec 31
Kamaru Usman?Resolves Dec 31
Carlos Prates?Resolves Dec 31
Islam Makhachev?Resolves Dec 31
Shavkat Rakhmonov?Resolves Dec 31
Sean Brady?Resolves Dec 31
Ian Machado Garry?Resolves Dec 31
Market context

Islam Makhachev is the current UFC welterweight champion after moving up from lightweight during the previous title cycle. UFC’s official page lists him at 28–1 and identifies Jack Della Maddalena as his latest opponent. The division’s year-end picture depends on the champion’s next defense and a crowded contender group, making both booking timing and the result of the next title fight important rather than simply the current ranking order.

Resolution rules

This poll group resolves according to the final official result of Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026. Exactly one poll resolves YES: the poll naming the officially declared winner or outcome; all remaining named polls resolve NO. Ultimate Fighting Championship is the authoritative external resolution source; forecasts, displayed probabilities, and commentary do not settle a poll. Schedule changes do not alter the outcome set. The governing body's final official record determines the result once the competition is completed and an official result is declared. Formal corrections supersede earlier records. If authoritative sources conflict or remain materially ambiguous, the affected poll remains pending for review. The expected evaluation time is 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The listed Other? poll is an actual binary poll. It resolves YES only when the official winner or categorical outcome is not named by another poll.

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