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Politics

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026?

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Probability timeline

Point-stake probability across every child poll.

YES probability
Range
Yulia Navalnaya?Resolves Oct 1050%Recep Tayyip Erdoğan?Resolves Oct 1050%Volodymyr Zelenskyy?Resolves Oct 1050%Mohammed bin Salman?Resolves Oct 1050%Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani?Resolves Oct 1050%Other15 other polls50%
−7d−3.5dNow

Make your call

Choose YES or NO for any open poll.

Yulia Navalnaya?Resolves Oct 10
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan?Resolves Oct 10
Volodymyr Zelenskyy?Resolves Oct 10
Mohammed bin Salman?Resolves Oct 10
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani?Resolves Oct 10
Vladimir Putin?Resolves Oct 10
Xi Jinping?Resolves Oct 10
Greta Thunberg?Resolves Oct 10
António Guterres?Resolves Oct 10
Pope Leo XIV?Resolves Oct 10
International Court of Justice?Resolves Oct 10
Ahmed al-Sharaa?Resolves Oct 10
UNRWA?Resolves Oct 10
Benjamin Netanyahu?Resolves Oct 10
Charlie Kirk?Resolves Oct 10
Donald Trump?Resolves Oct 10
Narendra Modi?Resolves Oct 10
Julian Assange?Resolves Oct 10
Elon Musk?Resolves Oct 10
Khaled Mashal?Resolves Oct 10
Market context

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 is still developing. Norwegian Nobel Committee recently reported “Nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize 2026”, while Norwegian Nobel Committee maintains Nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize 2026. Those developments frame the current competitive or public backdrop without determining the eventual result.

Resolution rules

Each poll resolves independently against the final official record for Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026. A poll resolves YES only when its exact proposition is confirmed and NO when the final record contradicts it. Norwegian Nobel Committee and Nobel Prize are the authoritative external resolution sources; forecasts, displayed probabilities, and commentary do not settle a poll. If the authoritative release or event is delayed, the affected poll remains unresolved until the result is available, unless that poll's proposition defines a firm deadline; deadline-based polls are evaluated only on whether their condition occurred by that deadline. Formal corrections supersede earlier records. If authoritative sources conflict or remain materially ambiguous, the affected poll remains pending for review. The expected evaluation time is 2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z UTC.

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