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F1 Drivers' Champion?

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Probability timeline

Point-stake probability across every child poll.

YES probability
Range
Oscar Piastri?Resolves Dec 650%Max Verstappen?Resolves Dec 650%Lewis Hamilton?Resolves Dec 650%George Russell?Resolves Dec 650%Other?Resolves Dec 650%Other5 other polls50%
−7d−3.5dNow

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Choose YES or NO for any open poll.

Oscar Piastri?Resolves Dec 6
Max Verstappen?Resolves Dec 6
Lewis Hamilton?Resolves Dec 6
George Russell?Resolves Dec 6
Other?Resolves Dec 6
Kimi Antonelli?Resolves Dec 6
Lando Norris?Resolves Dec 6
Esteban Ocon?Resolves Dec 6
Oliver Bearman?Resolves Dec 6
Charles Leclerc?Resolves Dec 6
Market context

Mercedes rookie Kimi Antonelli leads the 2026 Drivers’ Championship with 219 points after the Hungarian Grand Prix, where he finished third behind Lando Norris and Max Verstappen. Norris’s July 26 victory was McLaren’s first of the season, while Verstappen remains close enough to capitalize on any Mercedes or McLaren reliability issue. The championship is therefore still open with multiple race winners, substantial points remaining, and recent evidence that Mercedes, McLaren and Red Bull can challenge each other at the front.

Resolution rules

This poll group resolves according to the final official result of F1 Drivers' Champion. Exactly one poll resolves YES: the poll naming the officially declared winner or outcome; all remaining named polls resolve NO. Formula 1 and Associated Press are the authoritative external resolution sources; forecasts, displayed probabilities, and commentary do not settle a poll. Schedule changes do not alter the outcome set. The governing body's final official record determines the result once the competition is completed and an official result is declared. Formal corrections supersede earlier records. If authoritative sources conflict or remain materially ambiguous, the affected poll remains pending for review. The expected evaluation time is 2026-12-06T00:00:00.000Z UTC. The listed Other? poll is an actual binary poll. It resolves YES only when the official winner or categorical outcome is not named by another poll.

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